Twilight of Pax Americana – LA Times opinion piece

Twilight of Pax Americana – A very interesting article by Christopher Layne and Benjamin Schwarz appeared in yesterday’s LA times.

The theme of America’s hegemonic decline will come to be omnipresent in the media as obvious signs of America’s declining relative power start to appear. However, we should be a little realistic about what this decline will entail.

A conception of post-Pax Americana international society that is rife with mercantilism, regional instability, and conflict over resources makes for a riveting article, but it isn’t necessarily accurate.

When we try to picture a post-Pax Americana international society we tend to inevitably default to the historical experience of Pax Britannica or Pax Romana. A lot has changed since then.

First off, there’s the presence of nuclear weapons, an innovation that essentially precludes two major powers engaging in a direct war for survival. As perturbing a prospect of nuclear arms in the hands of non-state actors is, it can’t be argued that nuclear proliferation has not had a stabilizing effect on relations between nuclear states.

Secondly, there’s the question of who is rising to challenge the hegemonic power. In the past, these actors have tended to be ‘left out’ of the international system and thus wanted to overhaul it to give themselves a stake worthy of their rising power. China and India are however already stakeholders in this global system- the system that has made them rich- and as such, they share the United States’ eagerness to keep the gears of global capitalism oiled.

Finally, it should be kept in mind that hegemonic decline is not going to result in America’s disappearance from the global scene. Our international system is simply transitioning from unipolarity to multipolarity. This transition does not mean that the United State’s system of regional alliances will become null and void, but rather that they will be re-cast as equal partnerships- a process already taking place with regards to the Japan and South Korea alliances.

There are reasons to believe in the continued stability of a post-Pax Americana world. At the end of the day, it could be argued that any semblance of stability enjoyed in the past 50 years is more the result of nuclear arms than Pax Americana; and nukes aren’t going anywhere.

Posted: September 30th, 2009 under commentary, foreign policy analysis, internetery.