Karzai’s decision

Afghanistan’s Electoral Complaints Commission has confirmed what we’ve all known for a long time now: Karzai didn’t get a clean 50%.

So, what now?

The Obama administration has rolled the dice, publicly linking the establishment of a legitimate Afghan government with green lighting a troop surge in Afghanistan. Technically, these EEC findings make the much-dreaded run-off election the only option. The solution needs to be constitutional to save face in Washington, and now that Karzai officially lacks the necessary 50%, there can be no constitutional ‘unity government’ agreement.

Thus, the only ‘logical’ solution is a winter run-off election- one that’s sure to be fraught with voter apathy and violence. Of course, President Karzai might just play the national card and go renegade on NATO. This would not only precipitate an eventual NATO exit, but probably negate any possibility of success for Pakistan’s push in South Waziristan.

That said, Karzai will likely fall in line. He played a stubborn game and tried to use the gloomy prospect of a violent run-off as justification to accept a dirty election result. But now that the cards are on the table, he’d probably prefer a tumultuous run-off to a civil war.

Posted: October 19th, 2009 under commentary, foreign policy analysis.