Ferguson: An empire at risk

Harvard’s Niall Ferguson wrote an interesting piece for Newsweek titled an empire at risk. His article touches down on several scenarios that may come out of America’s massive deficit spending ($176 billion in October alone). According to Ferguson, as the federal budget is more and more encumbered by debt repayments, the first thing to go will inevitably be defense spending. Makes sense to me.

The people over at the RealClearWorld Blog, however, point out that a reduction in American defense spending from the present 4 percent of GDP to a projected 2.6 percent by 2028 would be enough to maintain America’s hegemonic status. Perhaps this is true, but if we assume that China continues its breakneck growth, by the 2030s the international system should be shifting into bipolarity with several other powers (India, Brazil, Russia) in the wings.

Posted: December 1st, 2009 under commentary, foreign policy analysis.