Iraq: a state divided – GPM Article & Commentary

Iraq is being interpreted as somewhat of a success story vis-a-vis the more apparent failure unfolding in Afghanistan. There is a kernel of truth to this- the Iraqi insurgency has ebbed and the new political infrastructure has taken a more comprehensive hold outside the capital of Baghdad. However, the overall sectarian situation within Iraq is anything but stable and there’s no reason to believe it will get better anytime soon. Here is what happened in Iraq over the course of just one day, December 16th, courtesy of Iraq Body Count :

Man shot dead in Alya, Khanaqin
Policeman shot dead in al-Hajj Ali, south Mosul
Off-duty policeman shot dead in Mosul
Policeman on Dec 22, from wounds from bomb explosion, al-Muaalimeen, Kirkuk
Body of 42-year-old man found shot dead in al-Nada, south Khanaqin

Insurgents continue to target government institutions, and it’s telling that in just one day, two policemen from the predominantly Shiite security forces were killed in the predominantly Sunni city of Mosul.

There is no doubt that the Iraqi government has more reason for optimism than the one presiding over Afghanistan, but sectarian tension has only become less visible, it has by no means disappeared. The Americans are well aware of this fact, and as they move closer to a final withdrawal, they will be torn between the critical need to reduce America’s money-burning military footprint in the country, and the fear of what will happen if they do.

The ‘compromise’ would be permanent US military bases in Iraq, but this will only become tenable to Iraqis if sectarian tension comes to a violent boil, if ever.

Unlike Afghanistan, where recent elections were more of a dog and pony show gone wrong, Iraq’s upcoming March elections are truly be make or break. If it’s break, then serious instability looms over two of the world’s major energy exporters in Iran and Iraq.

The full article can be found here.

Happy New Years to all! Oh, and big news: Geopoliticalmonitor.com will soon be implementing a comments system! Now everyone can fawn over/guffaw at my articles directly.

Posted: December 31st, 2009 under commentary, foreign policy analysis.